World Cup 2026: Argentina and Brazil Advance as the Expanded Format Takes Shape

Argentina defeated Australia 4-1 and Brazil edged Mexico 2-1, sending both South American sides through and confirming the early pattern of an expanded World Cup: the elite teams are progressing, but the margins in the middle of the draw are narrower and stranger than any previous tournament.

Argentina 4-1 Australia

Australia's approach was coherent — a compact mid-block, disciplined lateral shifts, and a clear plan to concede possession in front of the defensive line rather than behind it. It held for the opening half hour. What broke it was Argentina's willingness to be patient with sterile possession until Australian midfield spacing degraded, then to attack the seam between full-back and centre-back at pace. Once the first goal arrived, Australia's structure had to open, and the remaining three came against a shape that no longer existed.

Brazil 2-1 Mexico

A far tighter match, and a more instructive one. Mexico pressed with genuine aggression in the first half and were rewarded with the better chances; Brazil looked uncomfortable playing out under pressure and repeatedly went long to relieve it. The turning point was Brazil's second-half adjustment — dropping a midfielder deeper to create a numerical advantage in the first build phase — after which Mexico's press became unsustainable and the game's territory reversed within ten minutes.

Mexico lost the match in the ten minutes after they stopped being able to press. That interval, not the scoreline, is the story.

What the 48-team format is doing to the tournament

• Twelve groups of four with the eight best third-placed teams advancing means a single win can be enough to progress, which reduces the cost of a cautious opening match.
• The knockout bracket now runs to a round of 32, adding a match to the champion's path and compressing recovery time.
• Travel distances across three host nations are the largest in World Cup history, and squad rotation is becoming a competitive variable rather than a luxury.
• Heat in several venues has pushed kick-off scheduling into a genuine performance factor.

The pattern to watch

Expanded tournaments in other sports have consistently produced the same effect: more matches, fewer upsets in aggregate, and a heavier premium on squad depth. Early evidence here fits. The teams struggling are not the weakest ones but the mid-tier sides with a strong first eleven and a thin bench, for whom a fourth match in twelve days across two time zones is the actual opponent. That structural point connects directly to the governance debate now surrounding the tournament's commercial direction.