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Iran

President Trump said on Sunday that a new round of strikes on Iranian targets, understood to have been prepared and ready to launch within days, had been called off 'subject to a deal being made rapidly'. The announcement, reported first by the BBC, came after what officials in the region described as urgent, sustained pressure from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, all of which have spent the past fortnight warning Washington and Tehran that a further escalation risked shutting down the Strait of Hormuz altogether.

  • Qatar has the most exposed LNG export infrastructure of any Gulf state and relies on unimpeded transit through Hormuz.
  • Saudi Arabia has spent several years quietly rebuilding a working relationship with Tehran and does not want a US strike campaign to unravel it.
  • The UAE's ports and re-export trade are especially sensitive to insurance and shipping disruption.
  • All three governments have hosted or facilitated indirect channels between Washington and Tehran in the past year.

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