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Gulf diplomacy

The trouble is that nobody in Tehran appears to agree a deal is close. Iran's foreign ministry has flatly denied that substantive talks are taking place, a position it has repeated to both the BBC and Al Jazeera in near-identical language over the past two days. That gap between the American framing and the Iranian denial is now the central uncertainty hanging over the Gulf.

  • Qatar has the most exposed LNG export infrastructure of any Gulf state and relies on unimpeded transit through Hormuz.
  • Saudi Arabia has spent several years quietly rebuilding a working relationship with Tehran and does not want a US strike campaign to unravel it.
  • The UAE's ports and re-export trade are especially sensitive to insurance and shipping disruption.
  • All three governments have hosted or facilitated indirect channels between Washington and Tehran in the past year.

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