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bitcoin

Search demand for bitcoin price predictions runs into the tens of thousands of queries a month, and the supply of answers is effectively unlimited, which should be the first clue about their quality. The overwhelming majority of published targets are not the output of a model. They are round numbers selected for memorability, published by people with a position, a product or an audience to keep.

  • Stock-to-flow: treats scarcity as the sole price driver and has already failed out of sample; supply schedules known years in advance cannot explain unanticipated price moves.
  • Halving cycle timing: the pattern rests on a small number of observations, and the introduction of large regulated buyers has changed the composition of demand that produced it.
  • Total-addressable-market comparisons against gold: assume an outcome rather than deriving one, and are sensitive to an arbitrary chosen share.
  • On-chain holder metrics: genuinely informative about behaviour, but increasingly blurred as more supply sits in custodial and fund structures that do not move on-chain.

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