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demand forecast

Oil forecasting has always been a discipline with a poor accuracy record, and the current environment makes it harder rather than easier. The market is being pulled by forces that operate on different timescales: production decisions taken monthly, geopolitical disruptions that arrive without notice, and structural demand shifts that reveal themselves only over years.

  • Passenger road fuel demand in developed markets is flattening as electrified fleets grow, but the effect is gradual and concentrated in a few countries.
  • Petrochemical feedstock demand continues to grow and is far harder to displace than transport fuel.
  • Aviation and marine fuel have recovered fully and have no near-term substitute at scale.
  • Emerging-market demand growth remains the largest single swing factor, and it tracks industrial activity more closely than any published energy transition scenario.

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