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export controls

The tariff relief applies to consumer and intermediate goods categories where domestic political pressure over prices has been most acute. It does not touch the export controls on advanced semiconductors, the equipment used to manufacture them, or the restrictions around critical minerals processing. Those measures are framed as national security rather than trade policy, which places them outside the negotiation entirely — by design, since both sides prefer them there.

  • Final assembly has genuinely shifted to Southeast Asia and Mexico across several product categories.
  • Component supply for that assembly still originates overwhelmingly from the same Chinese suppliers, so the dependency moved one step upstream rather than disappearing.
  • Rules-of-origin enforcement has tightened in response, adding compliance cost without changing the physical supply chain much.
  • The net effect for importers is a longer, more expensive route to the same components.

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