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mountain safety

The single most consistent finding in avalanche accident analysis is that victims were not caught by surprise conditions. In the large majority of fatal incidents, the hazard was forecast, the terrain was recognisably dangerous, and at least one member of the party had reservations they did not voice. Avalanche safety is therefore mostly a decision-making problem wearing an equipment problem's clothes.

• Familiarity: a slope skied fifty times feels safe on the day the snowpack is different.
• Commitment: a long approach, a booked window or an expensive permit makes turning around feel like a loss rather than a choice.
• Social proof: existing tracks on a slope indicate that someone else survived it, which is not evidence about stability.
• Expert halo: groups defer to the most experienced member, who is often the least likely to be challenged and therefore the least corrected.